Models in Prophet

Introduction and objectives

The project contains the creation of a complex and stable SW tool (in Prophet environment) to project the monthly development of

  • cash flows
  • market values, amortized costs, accrued interests, and other book figures
  • PL and BS and other reporting figures
  • duration, convexity, and other assets characteristics
  • Yield indicator

for current portfolios of financial instruments and their reinvestments as well as the reinvestments of defined external cash flow.

This tool is applicable for consistent analysis within the following areas:

  • ALM risk management
  • Solvency II calculations - esp. standard formula
  • automatization of the planning process
  • (re)investment strategy testing

Financial instruments to be in scope

The following financial instruments are intended to be in scope

  • fix coupon (bond)
  • floating coupon (bond)
  • deposit
  • current account
  • saving account
  • government treasury bills (T-bills)
  • IRS (Interest rate swap)
  • FX swap (Foreign exchange swap)
  • forward
  • Share (probably simplified as the fixed-income instrument)

Calculation inputs

The inputs to the calculations are

  • list of financial instruments - a current portfolio of assets
  • yield curves split to the financial sector (e.g. governments bonds, corporate bonds, etc.) and separately for each currency in scope
  • future FX rates

If the reinvested portfolio is required to be modeled as well then these inputs are also required:

  • set of financial instruments to be used for reinvestments - similar info as for the existing portfolio
  • definition of the reinvestment strategy for the cash flow arising from the current assets portfolio
  • monthly external cash flow development and its reinvestment strategy definition

Outputs

The tool calculates these outputs:

  • Monthly development for defined instruments individually
  • Monthly development for current portfolio (all instruments) grouped by portfolios, sectors, type of the instrument, or accounting classification
  • Monthly development for reinvestments of cash flow generated by the current portfolio grouped by portfolios, sectors, type of the instrument, or accounting classification
  • Monthly development for reinvestments of external cash flow grouped by portfolios, sectors, type of instrument, or accounting classification

Monthly development is projected to an unlimited number of future years.
For each month the following figures are calculated (and stored):

  • Clean Market Value
  • Accrued Interest
  • Dirty Market Value (DMV) = Clean Market Value (CMV) + Accrued Interest (AI)
  • Amortized Prices (AP) = Clean Price calculated from YTM validated at the purchase date
  • FX Differences
  • Modified Duration

All of the figures are calculated at the beginning of the month as well as at the end of the month.

If you have any questions please use the contact form below.